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GUEST CONTRIBUTION - William Greider: Dismantle the Fed

Saturday, August 29, 2009

The calls for shutting down the Federal Reserve are rapidly growing into a chorus. William Greider, author of undeniably the best book about the Fed, "Secrets of the Temple - How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country" chimes in these days too. His book was my first milestone on the never ending road of understanding monetary policy and to learn about the greater realities in life.
Reading the "Secrets of the Temple" one can grasp that Greider only found out about the conflict-laden fiat currency system established by the Fed during his long and accurate research that made him ask years later why capital hires labor and not the other way round in his 2004 book "The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Paths to a Moral Economy."
I am especially delighted to have Greider's permission to post his most recent attack against the Fed which should be dismantled in his opinion. But read it all yourself.
Dismantling the Temple
by William H. Greider
The financial crisis has propelled the Federal Reserve into an excruciating political dilemma. The Fed is at the zenith of its influence, using its extraordinary powers to rescue the economy. Yet the extreme irregularity of its behavior is producing a legitimacy crisis for the central bank. The remote technocrats at the Fed who decide money and credit policy for the nation are deliberately opaque and little understood by most Americans. For the first time in generations, they are now threatened with popular rebellion.

Fed Threatened With Popular Rebellion
During the past year, the Fed has flooded the streets with money -- distributing trillions of dollars to banks, financial markets and commercial interests -- in an attempt to revive the credit system and get the economy growing again. As a result, the awesome authority of this cloistered institution is visible to many ordinary Americans for the first time. People and politicians are shocked and confused, and also angered, by what they see. They are beginning to ask some hard questions for which Federal Reserve governors do not have satisfactory answers.

Where did the central bank get all the money it is handing out? Basically, the Fed printed it, out of thin air. That is what central banks do. Who told the Fed governors they could do this? Nobody, really -- not Congress or the president. The Federal Reserve Board, alone among government agencies, does not submit its budgets to Congress for authorization and appropriation. It raises its own money, sets its own priorities.

Fed Is Independent With One Exception: Banks
Representative Wright Patman, the Texas populist who was a scourge of central bankers, once described the Federal Reserve as "a pretty queer duck." Congress created the Fed in 1913 with the presumption that it would be "independent" from the rest of government, aloof from regular politics and deliberately shielded from the hot breath of voters or the grasping appetites of private interests -- with one powerful exception: the bankers.

The Fed was designed as a unique hybrid in which government would share its powers with the private banking industry. Bankers collaborate closely on Fed policy. Banks are the "shareholders" who ostensibly own the twelve regional Federal Reserve banks. Bankers sit on the boards of directors, proposing interest-rate changes for Fed governors in Washington to decide. Bankers also have a special advisory council that meets privately with governors to critique monetary policy and management of the economy. Sometimes, the Fed pretends to be a private organization. Other times, it admits to being part of the government.

Favoring Bankers Is Embedded In the Fed's DNA
The antiquated quality of this institution is reflected in the map of the Fed's twelve regional banks. Five of them are located in the Midwest (better known today as the industrial Rust Belt). Missouri has two Federal Reserve banks (St. Louis and Kansas City), while the entire West Coast has only one (located in San Francisco, not Los Angeles or Seattle). Virginia has one; Florida does not. Among its functions, the Federal Reserve directly regulates the largest banks, but it also looks out for their well-being -- providing regular liquidity loans for those caught short and bailing out endangered banks it deems "to big to fail." Critics look askance at these peculiar arrangements and see "conspiracy." But it's not really secret. This duck was created by an act of Congress. The Fed's favoritism toward bankers is embedded in its DNA.

Black Hole of Democracy
This awkward reality explains the dilemma facing the Fed. It cannot stand too much visibility, nor can it easily explain or justify its peculiar status. The Federal Reserve is the black hole of our democracy--the crucial contradiction that keeps the people and their representatives from having any voice in these most important public policies. That's why the central bankers have always operated in secrecy, avoiding public controversy and inevitable accusations of special deal-making. The current crisis has blown the central bank's cover. Many in Congress are alarmed, demanding greater transparency. More than 250 House members are seeking an independent audit of Fed accounts (ed: initiated by Ron Paul). House Speaker Nancy Pelosi observed that the Fed seems to be poaching on Congressional functions -- handing out public money without the bother of public decision-making.

"Many of us were...if not surprised, taken aback, when the Fed had $80 billion to invest in AIG just out of the blue," Pelosi said. "All of a sudden, we wake up one morning and AIG was receiving $80 billion from the Fed. So of course we're saying, Where is this money coming from? 'Oh, we have it. And not only that, we have more.'" So who needs Congress? Pelosi sounded guileless, but she knows very well where the Fed gets its money. She was slyly tweaking the central bankers on their vulnerability.

Bernanke Fears a Congressional Audit
Fed chair Ben Bernanke responded with the usual aloofness. An audit, he insisted, would amount to "a takeover of monetary policy by the Congress." He did not appear to recognize how arrogant that sounded. Congress created the Fed, but it must not look too deeply into the Fed's private business. The mystique intimidates many politicians. The Fed's power depends crucially upon the people not knowing exactly what it does.

Bernanke So Far Neither Winner Nor Loser
Basically, what the central bank is trying to do with its aggressive distribution of trillions is avoid repeating the great mistake the Fed made after the 1929 stock market crash. The central bankers responded hesitantly then and allowed the money supply to collapse, which led to the ultimate catastrophe of full-blown monetary deflation and created the Great Depression. Bernanke has not yet won this struggle against falling prices and production -- deflationary symptoms remain visible around the world -- but he has not lost either. He might get more public sympathy if Fed officials explained this dilemma in plain English. Instead, they are shielding people from understanding the full dimensions of our predicament.

The Fed Needs to Be Reformed
President Obama inadvertently made the political problem worse for the Fed in June, when he proposed to make the central bank the supercop to guard against "systemic risk" and decide the terms for regulating the largest commercial banks and some heavyweight industrial corporations engaged in finance. The House Financial Services Committee intends to draft the legislation quickly, but many members want to learn more first. Obama's proposal gives the central bank even greater power, including broad power to pick winners and losers in the private economy and behind closed doors. Yet Obama did not propose any changes in the Fed's privileged status. Instead, he asked Fed governors to consider the matter. But perhaps it is the Federal Reserve that needs to be reformed.

2013 Would Be a Good Time to Change the Fed
A few months back, I ran into a retired Fed official who had been a good source twenty years ago when I was writing my book about the central bank, Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country. He is a Fed loyalist and did not leak damaging secrets. But he helped me understand how the supposedly nonpolitical Fed does its politics, behind the veil of disinterested expertise. When we met recently, he said the central bank is already making preparations to celebrate its approaching centennial. Some of us, I responded, have a different idea for 2013.

"We think that would be a good time to dismantle the temple," I playfully told my old friend. "Democratize the Fed. Or tear it down. Create something new in its place that's accountable to the public."

The Fed man did not react well to my teasing. He got a stricken look. His voice tightened. Please, he pleaded, do not go down that road. The Fed has made mistakes, he agreed, but the country needs its central bank. His nervous reaction told me this venerable institution is feeling insecure about its future.

Six Reasons Why Granting the Fed Even More Power Is a Really Bad Idea:
  1. It would reward failure. Like the largest banks that have been bailed out, the Fed was a co-author of the destruction. During the past twenty-five years, it failed to protect the country against reckless banking and finance adventures. It also failed in its most basic function--moderating the expansion of credit to keep it in balance with economic growth. The Fed instead allowed, even encouraged, the explosion of debt and inflation of financial assets that have now collapsed. The central bank was derelict in enforcing regulations and led cheers for dismantling them. Above all, the Fed did not see this disaster coming, or so it claims. It certainly did nothing to warn people.
  2. Cumulatively, Fed policy was a central force in destabilizing the US economy. Its extreme swings in monetary policy, combined with utter disregard for timely regulatory enforcement, steadily shifted economic rewards away from the real economy of production, work and wages and toward the financial realm, where profits and incomes were wildly inflated by false valuations. Abandoning its role as neutral arbitrator, the Fed tilted in favor of capital over labor. The institution was remolded to conform with the right-wing market doctrine of chairman Alan Greenspan, and it was blinded to reality by his ideology (see my Nation article "The One-Eyed Chairman," September 19, 2005).
  3. The Fed cannot possibly examine "systemic risk" objectively because it helped to create the very structural flaws that led to breakdown. The Fed served as midwife to Citigroup, the failed conglomerate now on government life support. Greenspan unilaterally authorized this new financial/banking combine in the 1990s -- even before Congress had repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, which prohibited such mergers. Now the Fed keeps Citigroup alive with a $300 billion loan guarantee. The central bank, in other words, is deeply invested in protecting the banking behemoths that it promoted, if only to cover its own mistakes.
  4. The Fed can't be trusted to defend the public in its private deal-making with bank executives. The numerous revelations of collusion have shocked the public, and more scandals are certain if Congress conducts a thorough investigation. When Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was president of the New York Fed, he supervised the demise of Bear Stearns with a sweet deal for JPMorgan Chase, which took over the failed brokerage -- $30 billion to cover any losses. Geithner was negotiating with Morgan Chase CEO and New York Fed board member Jamie Dimon. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein got similar solicitude when the Fed bailed out insurance giant AIG, a Goldman counterparty: a side-door payout of $13 billion. The new president at the New York Fed, William Dudley, is another Goldman man.
  5. Instead of disowning the notorious policy of "too big to fail," the Fed will be bound to embrace the doctrine more explicitly as "systemic risk" regulator. A new superclass of forty or fifty financial giants will emerge as the born-again "money trust" that citizens railed against 100 years ago. But this time, it will be armed with a permanent line of credit from Washington. The Fed, having restored and consolidated the battered Wall Street club, will doubtless also shield a few of the largest industrial-financial corporations, like General Electric (whose CEO also sits on the New York Fed board). Whatever officials may claim, financial-market investors will understand that these mammoth institutions are insured against failure. Everyone else gets to experience capitalism in the raw.
  6. This road leads to the corporate state -- a fusion of private and public power, a privileged club that dominates everything else from the top down. This will likely foster even greater concentration of financial power, since any large company left out of the protected class will want to join by growing larger and acquiring the banking elements needed to qualify. Most enterprises in banking and commerce will compete with the big boys at greater disadvantage, vulnerable to predatory power plays the Fed has implicitly blessed.
Fed Will Remain in the Crosshairs
Whatever good intentions the central bank enunciates, it will be deeply conflicted in its actions, always pulled in opposite directions. If the Fed tries to curb the growth of the megabanks or prohibit their reckless practices, it will be accused of damaging profitability and thus threatening the stability of the system. If it allows overconfident bankers to wander again into dangerous territory, it will be blamed for creating the mess and stuck with cleaning it up. Obama's reform might prevail in the short run. The biggest banks, after all, will be lobbying alongside him in favor of the Fed, and Congress may not have the backbone to resist. The Fed, however, is sure to remain in the cross hairs. Too many different interests will be damaged -- thousands of smaller banks, all the companies left out of the club, organized labor, consumers and other sectors, not to mention libertarian conservatives like Texas Representative Ron Paul. They will recognize that the "money trust" once again has its boot on their neck, and that this time the government arranged it.

Formidable Obstacles to Democratize the Fed
The obstacles to democratizing the Fed are obviously formidable. Tampering with the temple is politically taboo. But this crisis has demonstrated that the present arrangement no longer works for the public interest. The society of 1913 no longer exists, nor does the New Deal economic order that carried us to twentieth-century prosperity. The country thus has a rare opportunity to reconstitute the Federal Reserve as a normal government agency, shorn of the bankers' preferential trappings and the fallacious claim to "independent" status as well as the claustrophobic demand for secrecy.

Wisdom of Central Bankers Fails Spectacularly
Progressives in the early twentieth century, drawn from the growing ranks of managerial professionals, believed "good government" required technocratic experts who would be shielded from the unruly populace and especially from radical voices of organized labor, populism, socialism and other upstart movements. The pretensions of "scientific" decision-making by remote governing elites -- both the mysterious wisdom of central bankers and the inventive wizardry of financial titans -- failed spectacularly in our current catastrophe. The Fed was never independent in any real sense. Its power depended on taking care of its one true constituency in banking and finance.

Submitting to Transparency and Public Scrutiny
A reconstituted central bank might keep the famous name and presidentially appointed governors, confirmed by Congress, but it would forfeit the mystique and submit to the usual standards of transparency and public scrutiny. The institution would be directed to concentrate on the Fed's one great purpose--making monetary policy and controlling credit expansion to produce balanced economic growth and stable money. Most regulatory functions would be located elsewhere, in a new enforcement agency that would oversee regulated commercial banks as well as the "shadow banking" of hedge funds, private equity firms and others.

End the Fed's Hybrid Private-Public Status
The Fed would thus be relieved of its conflicted objectives. Bank examiners would be free of the insider pressures that inevitably emanate from the Fed's cozy relations with major banks. All of the private-public ambiguities concocted in 1913 would be swept away, including bank ownership of the twelve Federal Reserve banks, which could be reorganized as branch offices with a focus on regional economies.

Treasury and Fed Have No Grant to Create Money
Altering the central bank would also give Congress an opening to reclaim its primacy in this most important matter. That sounds farfetched to modern sensibilities, and traditionalists will scream that it is a recipe for inflationary disaster. But this is what the Constitution prescribes: "The Congress shall have the power to coin money [and] regulate the value thereof." It does not grant the president or the treasury secretary this power. Nor does it envision a secretive central bank that interacts murkily with the executive branch.

Given Congress's weakened condition and its weak grasp of the complexities of monetary policy, these changes cannot take place overnight. But the gradual realignment of power can start with Congress and an internal reorganization aimed at building its expertise and educating members on how to develop a critical perspective. Congress has already created models for how to do this. The Congressional Budget Office is a respected authority on fiscal policy, reliably nonpartisan. Congress needs to create something similar for monetary policy.

More Oversight Is Needed
Instead of consigning monetary policy to backwater subcommittees, each chamber should create a major new committee to supervise money and credit, limited in size to members willing to concentrate on becoming responsible stewards for the long run. The monetary committees, working in tandem with the Fed's board of governors, would occasionally recommend (and sometimes command) new policy directions at the federal agency and also review its spending.

Setting monetary policy is a very different process from enacting laws. The Fed operates through a continuum of decisions and rolling adjustments spread over months, even years. Congress would have to learn how to respond to deeper economic conditions that may not become clear until after the next election. The education could help the institution mature.

Congress Needs a Council of Public Elders

Congress also needs a "council of public elders" -- a rotating board of outside advisers drawn from diverse interests and empowered to speak their minds in public. They could second-guess the makers of monetary policy but also Congress. These might include retired pols, labor leaders, academics and state governors--preferably people whose thinking is no longer defined by party politics or personal ambitions. The public could nominate representatives too. No financial wizards need apply.

Cleaning Up the Mess Will Require Hard Rules
A revived Congress armed with this kind of experience would be better equipped to enact substantive law rather than simply turning problems over to regulatory agencies with hollow laws that are merely hortatory suggestions. Reordering the financial system and the economy will require hard rules -- classic laws of "Thou shalt" and "Thou shalt not" that command different behavior from certain private interests and prohibit what has proved reckless and destructive. If "too big to fail" is the problem, don't leave it to private negotiations between banks and the Federal Reserve. Restore anti-monopoly laws and make big banks get smaller. If the financial system's risky innovations are too complicated for bank examiners to understand, then those innovations should probably be illegal.

Citizens Must See Through the Fed's Secrets
Many in Congress will be afraid to take on the temple and reluctant to violate the taboo surrounding the Fed. It will probably require popular rebellion to make this happen, and that requires citizens who see through the temple's secrets. But the present crisis has not only exposed the Fed's worst failures and structural flaws; it has also introduced citizens to the vast potential of monetary policy to serve the common good. If Ben Bernanke can create trillions of dollars at will and spread them around the financial system, could government do the same thing to finance important public projects the people want and need? Daring as it sounds, the answer is, Yes, we can.

Money Made by Keystrokes
The central bank's most mysterious power -- to create money with a few computer keystrokes -- is dauntingly complicated, and the mechanics are not widely understood. But the essential thing to understand is that this power relies on democratic consent -- the people's trust, their willingness to accept the currency and use it in exchange. This is not entirely voluntary, since the government also requires people to pay their taxes in dollars, not euros or yen. But citizens conferred the power on government through their elected representatives. Newly created money is often called the "pure credit" of the nation. In principle, it exists for the benefit of all.

Lincoln Used Greenbacks to Win the War - Bernanke Does It to Save Banks
In this emergency, Bernanke essentially used the Fed's money-creation power in a way that resembles the "greenbacks" Abraham Lincoln printed to fight the Civil War. Lincoln was faced with rising costs and shrinking revenues (because the Confederate states had left the Union). The president authorized issuance of a novel national currency -- the "greenback" -- that had no backing in gold reserves and therefore outraged orthodox thinking. But the greenbacks worked. The expanded money supply helped pay for war mobilization and kept the economy booming. In a sense, Lincoln won the war by relying on the "full faith and credit" of the people, much as Bernanke is printing money freely to fight off financial collapse and deflation.

If Congress chooses to take charge of its constitutional duty, it could similarly use greenback currency created by the Federal Reserve as a legitimate channel for financing important public projects -- like sorely needed improvements to the nation's infrastructure. Obviously, this has to be done carefully and responsibly, limited to normal expansion of the money supply and used only for projects that truly benefit the entire nation (lest it lead to inflation). But here is an example of how it would work.

Not Bernanke But Congress Should Create a Development Fund
President Obama has announced the goal of building a high-speed rail system. Ours is the only advanced industrial society that doesn't have one (ride the modern trains in France or Japan to see what our society is missing). Trouble is, Obama has only budgeted a pittance ($8 billion) for this project. Spain, by comparison, has committed more than $100 billion to its fifteen-year railroad-building project. Given the vast shortcomings in US infrastructure, the country will never catch up with the backlog through the regular financing of taxing and borrowing.

Instead, Congress should create a stand-alone development fund for long-term capital investment projects (this would require the long-sought reform of the federal budget, which makes no distinction between current operating spending and long-term investment). The Fed would continue to create money only as needed by the economy; but instead of injecting this money into the banking system, a portion of it would go directly to the capital investment fund, earmarked by Congress for specific projects of great urgency. The idea of direct financing for infrastructure has been proposed periodically for many years by groups from right and left. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood co-sponsored legislation along these lines a decade ago when he was a Republican Congressman from Illinois.

This approach speaks to the contradiction House Speaker Pelosi pointed out when she asked why the Fed has limitless money to spend however it sees fit. Instead of borrowing the money to pay for the new rail system, the government financing would draw on the public's money-creation process -- just as Lincoln did and Bernanke is now doing.

Bankers Would Howl of Course
The bankers would howl, for good reason. They profit enormously from the present system and share in the money-creation process. When the Fed injects more reserves into the banking system, it automatically multiplies the banks' capacity to create money by increasing their lending (and banks, in turn, collect interest on their new loans). The direct-financing approach would not halt the banking industry's role in allocating new credit, since the newly created money would still wind up in the banks as deposits. But the government would now decide how to allocate new credit to preferred public projects rather than let private banks make all the decisions for us.

The reform of monetary policy, in other words, has promising possibilities for revitalizing democracy. Congress is a human institution and therefore fallible. Mistakes will be made, for sure. But we might ask ourselves, If Congress were empowered to manage monetary policy, could it do any worse than those experts who brought us to ruin?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: William Greider was an editor of national affairs at the Washington Post for 14 years before joining Rolling Stone magazine where he wrote a regular column for 17 years, driven by the motive to translate high politics and finance into plain language as he assessed that newspapers talked down to their readers, without knowing it. "I learned how to explain the complexities of politics and government with clarity and without the condescension that’s typical of the mainstream media," he writes in his self-description.
Greider has written several best-selling books.
His latest work, Come Home, America: The Rise and Fall (and Redeeming Promise) of Our Country, describes the epic turning point in our nation’s history driven by financial crisis, economic deterioration and other fundamental adversities.
The country faces a hard passage ahead. The fateful question is whether we can emerge on other side as a better country with more-fulfilling, self-directed lives for all. This is possible, the book insists, but only if the people themselves step up and reclaim their role as citizens in the full meaning.
Greider is the national affairs correspondent for The Nation, the USA's oldest and largest political weekly. This guest contribution will appear in the August 3 issue of The Nation.


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U.S. Update: Dollar testing year lows

What happened in Asia and Europe

After late U.S. session strong dollar bearish rally, majors spent most of Asian session consolidating around New York closing levels. Japanese yen lost some ground against dollar and Euro, as Japanese importers bought the two currencies ahead of their month-end book-closing. But rallies did not hold as weak Asian share markets encouraged short-term investors to buy back the safe-haven yen.

Early Europe, dollar remained consolidating close to year lows against most rivals, as data supported European currencies: in the U.K. economy contracted 0.7% showing the fall in GDP was less than the 0.8% previously calculated last month. Anyway, report also show that the economy shrank 5.5% from a year ago, the most since records began in 1955.

In Europe, confidence in the economic outlook increased more than economists forecast in August, adding to signs ending recession; a consumer sentiment index of the euro zone rose to 80.6, the highest since October, from 76 in July.

However major pairs were mostly in an overbought state, as well as American indexes (that reached fresh year highs before the opening bell) and crude oil were also overbought, signaling that a strong move to the upside in majors was quite unlikely.

Data in the U.S. show consumer spending edged up in July but incomes, were flat. Consumer spending is key when talking about the economy attempts to emerge from recession; meanwhile University of Michigan index was revised up to 66.6 for July, yet less than July reading of 70.5. Not very encouraging data send Wall Street down from earlier highs, still in positive territory at this point.

With Gbp still being the weakest currency across the board, Gbp/Usd quickly fell under 1.6300 following stocks. No doubts, the pair holds the bearish tone despite general risk appetite sentiment.

Euro however, continues holding above key 1.4340 area, and the bias remain bullish as long as the pair continues in current levels. That’s also keeping USD/CHF under pressure, as the pair barely holds above the 1.0550/1.0520 level. Despite previous interventions by SNB should not attract sellers at this point, bearish tone persists.

Japanese Yen remains strong ahead of general elections, unable to regain the 94.00 despite whatever stocks do. Won’t be a surprise if the pair opens next Asian session with some huge gap.

What to expect

With summer about to end, would be interesting to see what will happen when liquidity returns to market; would market players take profits from this year lows, or will dollar bearish trend finally set to stay? After three months of more or less narrow ranges, will majors finally break or will they remain struggling to find a direction? Hopefully, the answers will be here in a couple of weeks.

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Markets Lack Direction, Dollar Soft in Tight Range

Markets continue to lack a clear direction in early US session. Dollar remains soft in tight range while yen is trying to firm up a bit. Aussie edges further higher but Canadian dollar lags behind as crude oil softens a bit. US Personal income was flat in July versus expectation of 0.1% growth. spending rose 0.2%, inline with consensus. PCE deflator dropped less than expected by -0.8% yoy while core PC also slowed less than expected to 1.4% yoy. U of Michigan consumer sentiment was revised higher to 65.7 in Aug.

UK Q2 GDP was revised up from -0.7% qoq, -5.5% yoy, versus initial estimate of -0.8% qoq, -5.6% yoy. Gfk consumer confidence is unchanged at -25 in Aug versus expectation of improvement to -24. Sterling recovers mildly against Euro as traders take profits ahead of trend line resistance in the cross. Swiss KOF leading indicator rose much more than expected to -0.04 in Aug. Swissy also managed to strengthen against Euro. Eurozone confidence indicators are generally improved more than expected in Aug but provide little boost to the common currency.

Released from Japan overnight, headline CPI dropped further to a record -2.2% yoy in July, inline with expectation while core CPI also dropped to -2.2% yoy. It was the third straight month of record low in consumer inflation data and the fifth straight month of annual falls. Unemployment rate rose to record 5.7% in July while household spending slide -2%. The data argues that the government's stimulus plan are failing to spur demands which in turn push the economy deeper into deflation.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

With an intraday low in place at 93.21, some more consolidation could be seen in USD/JPY. Nevertheless, while another rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 95.05 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 93.21 will target 91.73 low next.

In the bigger picture, recent development suggests that rebound from 91.73 has completed already. Also, it indicates that prior break of falling channel resistance was a false break. The failure below 98.87 resistance also keeps the lower high pattern since 101.43 intact and thus argues that such down trend is still in progress. A break of 91.73 will confirm this case and bring deeper fall towards lower trend line support (now at 89.82) next. On the upside, break of 97.77 resistance, though, will revive the case that USD/JPY has bottomed out at 91.73 and will turn outlook bullish again.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Aug -25 -24 -25
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jul 5.70% 5.50% 5.40%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jul -2.00% -0.50% 0.20%
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Jul -2.20% -2.20% -1.80%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Jul -2.20% -2.20% -1.70%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Aug -1.60% -1.80% -1.80%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Aug -1.90% -1.80% -1.70%
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.70% -0.80% -0.80%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q2 P -5.50% -5.60% -5.60%
08:30 GBP Index of Services (3M/3M) Jun -0.60% -0.60% -1.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug -22 -21 -23
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 80.6 78 76
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -26 -28 -30
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug -11 -17 -18
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Aug -0.04 -0.59 -0.99 -0.85
12:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q2 -11.2B -$11.8B -$9.1B -7.73B
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul -0.50% -0.50% 0.70% 0.50%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul -3.80% -5.00% 6.20%
12:30 USD Personal Income Jul 0.00% 0.10% -1.30% -1.10%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul -0.80% -0.90% -0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jul 1.40% 1.30% 1.50%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment AUG F 65.7 64.5 63.2




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New Home Sales and Durable Orders Set Up U.S. GDP

According to reports released by the US Commerce Department today, both purchases of new homes and long lasting goods orders rose more than previously forecasted. The optimistic showing helped to reinforce the likelihood that the world’s largest economy may now be exiting one of the worst recessions in 70 years. However, are the numbers really that transparent and all telling? Taking a deeper look into the conditions and background of these figures, there might be evidence of something less than a glass half full mentality heading into tomorrow’s GDP figures.

New Home Sales Jump

Although new home sales jumped by a whopping 9.6 percent in the month, there is ample evidence for sector worry. Referencing the report, the pace of annual home sales accelerated to 433,000 and was the highest in four years. However, lending a hand of support for the figure seems to be the $8,000 tax credit implemented earlier this year. The program has helped to boost the housing figures since its inception in mid February. For the record, new home sales have steadily increased and beat estimates by four out of the last six months. But what happens when the tax credit program ends in the last days of November? The likely finalization of the program is likely to bring an end to the recent uptick in homeownership, which continues to remain underwater compared to last year’s levels. In comparison, rate of sales of new homes in 2008 were approximately 12.5 percent higher than now, with median prices that were 10 percent higher at $230,000. The good ol’ days.

new_home_08262009

Additionally worrisome is the fact that the positive results seemed to have stemmed from one region of the country. Rather than a broader lift in housing, a surge in the Northeastern states helped to prop the report up handsomely. In the month of July, new homes sales jumped by 32 percent in the area. This is a far cry from other regions of the country, which are still showing considerable losses of interest. With unemployment still a burden on a majority of the country, the one time surge in regional demand is likely to overshadow the continued economic pessimism that will likely translate into thin consumption for quarters to come.

Durable Goods Orders Rise From The Grave

Prior to revisions, US durable goods orders slid by a 2.5 percent clip in the month of June. However, the report managed to eke out an impressive 4.9 percent gain for July. This means that American consumers, previously thought to be under the gun, purchased longer lasting items like computers, automobiles and refrigerators. But once again, today’s figures may have led to premature economic partying. Excluding the usually volatile transportation component, the results actually gained a more mild 0.8 percent. The number is dismal when considering the pace of consumption was higher by 2.5 percent in the previous month. Machinery orders declined by 7 percent as the transportation portion added 18.4 percent to the figure on a 100 percent surge in orders for civilian aircraft. All in all, the durable goods orders, although still considered to be optimistic, remains in line with new home sales figures in overshadowing economic weakness still present in the US economy.

durable_goods_08262009

Targeting the US GDP Report

Ultimately, the realization of the softer economic landscape will likely surface in tomorrow’s gross domestic product report. Already posting a soft 1 percent contraction (compared to a 6.2 percent downfall earlier in the year), the figure is expected to contract slightly more this time around by 1.4 percent. Further slowdowns in consumption and manufacturing are likely to contribute heavily to the report as the findings derive results from the second quarter. The sentiment will for sure keep dollar bulls in the ring for a bit longer as traders exit riskier fx trades en masse for a safer currency asset.



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Forex European Preview 08.28.2009

A revision of the second-quarter UK Gross Domestic Product is set to confirm that the economy shrank 0.8% in the three months to June to bring the annual growth rate to -5.6%, the worst in at least 53 years. Barring an unexpected, large revision in the headline figure or any of the key components (in particular the Private Consumption reading), the outcome is unlikely to produce much of a reaction in the currency markets having already been priced into the exchange rate. Indeed, the market seems focused more on the Bank of England’s dovish posture despite surface-level improvements in economic data: a trade-weighted index of the Pound’s average value topped out on 08/05, the day before the last rate decision, and has been trending lower ever since; a Credit Suisse index gauging traders’ 1-year BOE rate hike expectations (as derived from overnight index swaps) topped out on the very same day.

Turning to the continent, Euro Zone Consumer Confidence is expected to rise for the fifth straight month to print at -21 in August, up from -23 in the previous month. The metric closely tracks a Morgan Stanley index of Euro Zone stock performance; indeed, the correlation now stands at a formidable 97.7% and has registered above 80% since October 2005. Equities listed on Euro Zone exchanges have added 5.7% so far this month, bolstering the case for an improvement in sentiment. The Euro Zone Business Climate Indicator is likely to follow a similar trajectory: this metric is 95.1% correlated to stock performance in the currency bloc. While these results will offer little by way of new insights, they may offer some additional near-term fuel to continue feeding the rebound in risky assets that began late into the New York trading session. The longer-term outlook is far more ominous, however: unemployment stands at 9.4%, the highest in a decade, while loans to Euro Zone businesses and households grew just 0.6% in July, the lowest since records began in 1991. Clearly, private demand can’t grow without the ability to earn or borrow money, making any rebound beyond the fleeting effects of government stimulus a distant prospect.


Asia Session Highlights

Japan’s labor market continued to disappoint in July as the Jobless Rate rose to a greater-than-expected 5.7%, a 33-year record high, while the ratio of available jobs to seeking applicants unexpectedly dropped to a fresh all-time low of 0.42. Looking ahead, a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg suggests the pace of job losses will continue to accelerate at least through the second half of next year. This points to continued weakness in consumer spending as layoffs weigh on disposable incomes. Indeed, Household Spending fell -2.0% in the year to July, four times worse than forecast.

The economic outlook for the world’s second-largest economy was made all the more ominous as the Consumer Price Index fell -2.2% in the year to July, marking the sixth consecutive month in negative territory and threatening to send Japan spiraling back into another “lost decade” of deflation-fueled stagnation as consumers and businesses expecting lower prices in the future delay spending and investment, encouraged to perpetually wait for the best possible bargain.

In the UK, GfK Consumer Confidence disappointed in August, holding flat at -25 to show that pessimists among those polled for the survey outnumbered the optimists by the same margin for a third consecutive month, upsetting expectations of an improvement to -24. Expectations of economic conditions for the next 12 months and the propensity to commit to major purchases both deteriorated; the former for the first time since April. On the other hand, a gauge of saving intentions rose for the seventh consecutive month. A statement accompanying the release noted that, “While UK consumers are still cautious about the economy, they are less pessimistic than this time last year.”

The Bank of China Ltd, the country’s third-largest lender by assets, said it plans to slow credit growth in the second half of the year. The news reinforces the government’s efforts to rein in lending and may weigh on risky assets considering the market’s recent focus on China as the poster-child of recovery from the global downturn.

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EUR/USD tests 1.4300 after falling to intra-day low at 1.4280

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Euro fell across the board on Friday. EUR/USD rally downside after breaking below 1.4320. The pair fell to 1.4280 posting a fresh intra-day low. From there started to rise and currently is testing 1.4300. During the American session lost more than a hundred pips. EUR/USD is ending the week with a small loss and remains inside a big range between 1.4400 and 1.4000.

Against the Swiss Franc, Euro is also falling. EUR/CHF fell on Friday, finding support at 1.5150. The pair lost previous gains and finished the week for the third time in a row with losses.


EUR/USD (Aug 29 at 13:24 GMT)

1.4302/03 (0.03%)

H 1.4311 L 1.4297

S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.42301.42661.43021.43021.43381.4374
[?]Trend Index[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish
Data updated on Aug 29 at 13:24 (15-minute timeframe)



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Are Oil Prices Too High?

Supply data says “Yes”.

One Response to “Are Oil Prices Too High?”



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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - August 28, 2009

Today the EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF 2hr macd divergence we have seen for over a week finally was followed up by some lower highs on the EUR/GBP and higher lows on GBP/CHF. Hinting Strongly at minimum of a 21 ema pullback on these long term charts was about to occur. This meant essentially we had technical reasoning to go Long British Pound Sterling against all comers all night long at any support possible until either resistance was hit, or failure in the form of 1-2-3 pattern’s etc. There were high quality long entries on GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, and short on EUR/GBP well into the pre-London session. These parts all offered again high quality pullbacks as the London market opened around 8am London time. In this video I focus on just one of these pairings, the GBP/JPY. I show in detail the divergence we spoke of that led us to believe Sterling strength all night would be the theme, along with complete details on how we put together a ‘Reload’ of the GBP/JPY long off a double bottom 61/8% Fibonacci and other overlapping support. I also discuss how we planned our profit takes, and determine where this trade might go. Excellent night overall, nice GBP basket trades that really cleaned up tonight, could not ask for a better way to end the week.

FXBootcamp London Currency Coach-
Christian Stephens



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New 2009 List of Silver Mining Companies

Friday, August 28, 2009

As this list of silver companies published in 2007 has become the most-read blog post this year I felt compelled to update it.
Compiling a list of silver companies is controversial as there are only very few pure silver plays.
The white metal is mostly mined in combination with gold or base metals which can dramatically change the bottom line of silver miners. In some cases the mining of base metals and gold can lead to negative cash costs for every ounce of silver produced.
Silver is primarily used in jewellery and the best metallic electric conductor. For more applications for silver check this webpage by preciousmetalinvestment.com.
Expecting silver prices to multiply in the next 5 years these companies give extra leverage - if their plans come true.
All silver stocks got hammered in 2008 in the biggest crash in the mining sector in the last 80 years. Do your own research as some companies are trading at less than the cash they have in the till.
While the IPO train on Wall Street has become a train wreck due to the hesitancy of investment banks when underwriting new issues, junior miners are not dependent on conventional measures to raise capital.
They (better) know how to attract investors with a long term horizon directly, as I was able to witness myself when living in Vancouver in 2007.
Vancouver stock exchange is the primary market for junior miners for all kinds of resources. The market had had a shady reputation in the 1980s but has cleared up his act by establishing mandatory reporting rules for junior miners. Its most important improvement was the introduction of standards for reporting new metals reserves.

GRAPH: Silver is a lot more volatile than gold while physical demand is unprecedented. The Austrian Mint produces silver Philharmonics 24/7 since introducing this bullion coin in 2008. Silver currently trades at a ratio of 1:63 to gold. In the long term this ratio has been closer to 1:15, leaving enormous upside potential for silver that could easily lead to a price around $40 next year. Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com.
I consider investments in exploration companies as very risky and build up positions very slowly. But they come with a notable exception to the golden rule that for every percentage point of possible reward there is an equal risk.
In the case of explorers/developers there is an exception to the rule: As long as one invests without leverage there is a risk of 100% but a multiple of that in possible gains when an explorer hits silver indeed. When researching risky investments like this very small sector with only a few billions in market capitalization I look mainly for the following:
  • Quality of management. Check the track record of management in past mining ventures.
  • Management's stake in the company. If they don't sell or even buy more it is usually a good sign.
  • Delays. Are there any delays in realizing the company's ventures ?
  • Cost per ounce. What are the company's cash costs per ounce produced? How much do I pay per ounce when I buy their shares?
  • Institutional shareholders. Which funds own the company, which analysts cover the stock?
  • Proximity to production. Potential gains are higher with explorers in the early stages, but so are the risks. I like companies in the process of finalizing the feasibility study for financing or - at a later stage - companies that are close to production.
  • Political risk. Your due diligence has to include the respective stability of the country where your miner digs the money out of the ground.
In respect of the political risk I also shun US based silver miners as there exists a possibility that the government can nationalize virtually any company under the Trading With the Enemy Act, which became law in 1917 during World War I and applies during declared wars, and from 1977's International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which can be applied without declared wars. Read more on this issue on GATA's website.
Marc Courtenay has recently penned a story at SeekingAlpha that deals with the possibility of another confiscation of gold and silver and mining shares by the US government. Seeing all the current nationalizations of car makers, banks and the health sector in the USA I don't rule out anything anymore.

List of Silver Explorers, Developers and Miners
Here comes the list of more than 100 silver companies (click the name for the company's website and the ticker symbol for price information):

Abcourt Mines (ABI.V): Gold, silver and zinc in Quebec
Alexco Resource (AXR.TO): Silver in Canada
Apogee Minerals (APE.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Bolivia
Aquiline Resources (AQI.TO): Silver and gold in Argentina, Canada and Mexico
Arian Silver (AGQ.V): Silver in Mexico
Aura Silver (AUU.V): Silver in Canada, El Salvador, Mexico, USA
Aurcana (AUN.V): Silver, gold, lead, zinc in Mexico
Aurex BioMining AG (not listed): Silver in Austria
Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM.V): Silver, gold, zinc, copper, lead in British Columbia
Bear Creek Mining (BCM.V): Silver, gold in Peru
Canadian Zinc (CZN.TO): Silver, zinc, and lead in Canada
Canarc Resources (CCM.TO): Silver in South America
Canasil Resources (CLZ.V): Silver, gold, copper, lead, zinc in British Columbia and Mexico
Capstone Mining (CS.TO): Silver in Mexico
Chariot Resources (CHD.TO): Silver and copper in Peru
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.V): Silver, gold, zinc in Mexico and the USA
CMC Metals (CMB.V): Silver in Canada
Coeur d'Alene (CDE): Silver and gold in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico, USA
Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN): Precious metals in Peru
Continuum Resources (CNU.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
Cornerstone Resources (CGP.V): Gold, silver, copper, nickel, VMS, potash, and uranium properties in Canada and Ecuador
Cream Mineral Resources (CMA.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Canada, Mexico and Sierra Leone
Dia Bras Exploration (DIB.V: Silver, copper, zinc in Mexico
Eagle Plains Resources (EPL.V): 35 gold, silver, uranium, copper, molybdenum, zinc and rare earth mineral projects in Canada
Eastfield Resources (ETF.V): Gold, copper, silver, nickel, molybdenum and Platinum Group Metals in Canada and USA
ECU Silver Mining (ECU.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Mexico:
Endeavour Silver (EDR.TO): Silver in Mexico
Esperanza Silver (EPZ.V): Silver in Mexico, Peru
Excellon Resources (EXN.TO): Silver in Mexico
First Majestic (FR.TO): Silver in Mexico
First Point Minerals (FPX.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Mexico and the Americas
Fortuna Silver Mines (FVI.V): Silver in Mexico
Fury Exploration (FUR.V): Silver in Canada
Genco Resources (GGC.TO): Silver in Mexico
Gitennes Exploration (GIT.TO): Silver, gold copper in Peru
Gold Hawk Resources (CGK.V): Gold, silver, lead, zinc and copper in Peru
Golden Goliath Resources (GNG.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
Great Panther Resources (GPR.TO): Silver in Mexico
Hecla Mining (HL): Silver, gold in Mexico and USA
Hellix Ventures (HEL.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
Herencia Resources (HER.L): Silver, lead, zinc in Chile
Hochschild Mining (HOC.L): Silver in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Peru
Huldra Silver (HDA.V): Silver in Canada
Impact Silver (IPT.V): Silver in Mexico, Dominican Republic
International Minerals (IMZ.TO): Silver, gold in Ecuador and Peru
Intrepid Mines (IAU.TO): Silver, gold in Australia and Indonesia
Journey Resources (JNY.V): Silver, gold, lead, zinc in Mexico, Peru, USA
Kenrich-Eskay (KRE.V): Silver, gold in Canada
Kimber Resources (KBR.TO): Silver, gold in Mexico
Kings Minerals (KMN.AX): Silver, gold, copper, rhenium, molybdenum in Australia and Mexico
Klondike Silver (KS.V): Silver in Canada, Mexico
LKA International (LKAI.OB): Silver, gold in USA
Logan Resources (LGR.V): Precious metals, base metals and uranium in Canada
MacMillian Gold (MMG.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
MacMin Silver (MMN.AX): Silver in Australia
MAG Silver (MAG.TO): Silver in Mexico
Marifil (MFM.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Argentina
Mexican Silver Mines (MSM.V): Silver in Mexico
Milner Consolidated Silver Mines (MCA.V): Silver in Canada
Minefinders (MFL.TO): Silver, gold in USA
Minera Andes (MAI.TO): Silver in Argentina
Mines Management (MGT.TO): Silver, copper in the USA
Minco Silver (MSV.TO): Silver in China
Mindoro Resources (MIO.V): Silver, base metals in the Philippines
Mountain Boy Minerals (MTB.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Canada
Normabec Mining (NMB.V): Silver, gold in Canada and Mexico
Orko Silver (OK.V): Silver in Mexico
Oremex Resources (ORM.V): Silver in Mexico
Oro Silver (OSR.V): Silver in Mexico
Pacific Comox Resources (PCM.V): Silver, gold, molybdenum, base metals in Canada
Palmarejo Silver and Gold (PJO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
Pan American Silver (PAA.TO): Silver in Bolivia, Mexico, Peru
Pershimco Resources (PRO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
Piedmont Mining (PIED.OB): Silver, gold in USA
Portal Resources (PDO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico, USA, gas and oil in Mexico
Quaterra Resources (QTA.V): Silver in Mexico
Redcorp Ventures (RDV.TO): Silver, gold, copper, lead, zinc in Canada
Revett Minerals (RVM.TO): Silver, gold, copper in USA
Sabina Silver (SBB.V): Silver in Canada
Scorpio Mining (SPM.TO): Silver in Mexico
Silvercorp (SVM.TO): Silver in China
SilverCrest Mines (SVL.V): Silver in Chile, El Salvador, Mexico
Silver Dragon Resources (SDRG.OB): Silver in China
Silver Eagle Mines (SEG.TO): Silver in Mexico
Silver Fields Resources (SF.V): Silver in Canada, Mexico, USA
Silver Grail Resources (SVG.V): Silver in Canada
Silvermet (SYI.V): Silver in Canada, Turkey
Silvermex Resources (SMR.V): Silver in Mexico
Silver Quest Resources (SQI.V): Silver in North America
Silver Standard (SSRI): Silver in Argentina, Australia, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Canada, USA
Silverstone Resources (SST.V): Silver in Mexico
Silver Wheaton (SLW): Silver in Greece, Mexico, Peru, Sweden
SNS Silver (SNS.V): Silver in the USA
South American Silver (SAC.TO): Silver in Bolivia, Chile
Southern Silver (SSV.V): Silver in Mexico, USA
St. Eugene Mining (SEM.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Canada
Starcore (SAM.TO): Silver, gold in Mexico
Stealth Minerals (SML.V): Silver, gold, copper in Canada
Sterling Mining (SRLMQ.PK): Silver in USA
Stroud Resources (SDR.V): Silver, gold, natural gas in Mexico
Teryl Resources (TRC.V): Silver, gold, copper in Alaska
Tumi Resources (TM.V): Silver in Mexico, Sweden
UC Resources (UC.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
US Silver (USA.V): Silver in the USA
Valencia Ventures (VVI.V): Silver in Australia, Canada, Chile, USA
Yale Resources (YLL.V): Silver in Mexico

Useful links for research and information on silver companies:
NOTE: Please email me if I have missed out on one or more silver companies in order to update this list.


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Some Junior Silver Miners Are Heavily Underpriced

It's summertime and the bloggin' ... strays a little from my usual diet of central bank watching, calling for a revival of the gold standard and criticizing the excesses of greed.
Having correctly forecasted the current crisis of the Western world since 2005 and fearing the coming period of hyperinflation due to central banks more than willing to monetize the debt I have shifted portfolio contents accordingly. While I have fared well with my gold stocks, Redback Mining (RBI.TO) still being my long term favorite - reported a new high-grade discovery today - since I got in at C$1.50 I had spent the better part of 2007 in Vancouver, focusing on silver stocks.
Taking Ted Butlers arguments that there is less silver than gold above ground with more than just a grain of salt, I nevertheless believe that silver will outperform gold in the long run as it has also industrial uses as the best electric conductor at dirt cheap prices.
The strange thing about the former monetary metal is where has it gone? Not even the Mexican central bank reports its silver holdings and neither does the People's Bank of China or the Reserve Bank of India, 2 countries that had been on a silver standard before WW2.
Recycling experts say most silver used in appliances does not get recycled, citing cost concerns. The catalytic process becomes a lot more interesting when one looks at e.g. platinum, currently traded at $1,214.
This amounts to a massive loss of mined silver although it cannot be quantified.
There are more fundamentally positive reasons for silver. The gold/silver ration stands at 1:68 at the time of writing. In the last 2000 years this ratio was closer to 1:15 until US president Nixon closed the gold window.
According to the Mogambo Guru silvers historic record price was $1,012 per troy ounce:
The historical high for silver was set 532 years ago in 1477, topping at (using the purchasing power of 1998 dollars) a princely $806 an ounce. By comparison, the price of silver less than $19 an ounce today, and was only about $5 an ounce in 1998, after having bottomed at under $4 an ounce in 1992.
Now, fast-forward to today as our 2008 dollars, which have fallen 50% in purchasing power since 1998, means that the all-time high price of silver, set in 1477, now stands at $1,012 an ounce, measured in the buying power of 2008 dollars!
In such a long term perspective the Hunt brothers' failed cornering of silver with a high at $50 appears quite tame.
As I live in a country that punishes silver bullion investments with 20% VAT I get my ounces through investments in silver miners and the ETF of Zuercher Kantonalbank.
I prefer junior silver miners as they offer the biggest bang for the buck after the worst crash of miners in the last 80 years in 2008.
Most companies I follow have yet to recover to their highs made in 2007 or early 2008 when silver spiked to $21, only to fall back to $14 within a week.
A silver bug in Vancouver has saved me a lot of work at comparing junior silver producers.
Before I report on his findings I feel better when informing potential investors that the whole silver market, no matter whether physical or mining shares, is a tiny, tiny speck in the world of investment instruments. But this is also where the biggest gains of the future may be made. Just imagine once the mainstream mutual funds start to allocate said miners in their asset allocation. A few billion will propel gold and silver miners to the moon and maybe even further.

GRAPH: The bunch of junior miners resembles a minefield. Yesteryear's production is not a guidance for the future as ECU Silver, First Majestic and Genco Resources prove this with wild swings in annual production. Click graph for a larger image.
A look at net income shows that miners often need many years to arrive at a positive net income due to the huge outlays until production starts.

GRAPH: Impact Silver is the only member of this peer group consistently recording growing net income. Click for a larger image.
If you want to dive deeper into the key figures of these 8 junior silver miners, download an Excel sheet here.
Find a complete and take 2 minutes to read the pro's and cons in silver investing.
DISCLOSURE: Long Impact Silver, Endeavour and bullion.


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FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 28th 2009

Hey Everyone. Tough London trading prevails however we are trading in the context of some longer term direction especially on the Pound related pairs. In this presentation I draw up a conservative trade plan for Pound Yen and Cable. Lots of Fibonacci work today as well as longer term chart use for an intraday bias. Good luck and have a safe weekend. David Pegler



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Are Oil Prices Too High?



Supply data says “Yes”.



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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - August 28, 2009

Today the EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF 2hr macd divergence we have seen for over a week finally was followed up by some lower highs on the EUR/GBP and higher lows on GBP/CHF. Hinting Strongly at minimum of a 21 ema pullback on these long term charts was about to occur. This meant essentially we had technical reasoning to go Long British Pound Sterling against all comers all night long at any support possible until either resistance was hit, or failure in the form of 1-2-3 pattern’s etc. There were high quality long entries on GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, and short on EUR/GBP well into the pre-London session. These parts all offered again high quality pullbacks as the London market opened around 8am London time. In this video I focus on just one of these pairings, the GBP/JPY. I show in detail the divergence we spoke of that led us to believe Sterling strength all night would be the theme, along with complete details on how we put together a ‘Reload’ of the GBP/JPY long off a double bottom 61/8% Fibonacci and other overlapping support. I also discuss how we planned our profit takes, and determine where this trade might go. Excellent night overall, nice GBP basket trades that really cleaned up tonight, could not ask for a better way to end the week.

FXBootcamp London Currency Coach-
Christian Stephens



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Forex Trading is a Fantastic Way to Earn an Income From Your Computer

Forex trading can be your gateway to financial freedom if you take the time and put in the effort to acquire a firm grounding in the basics. If you go into a trade ill-prepared just because other people are trading, you are bound to lose your shirt.

There is money to be made through forex trading, that is for sure, but you must do your research and be ready for it or you'll lose money and time. You have to account for a lot of factors ahead of trading because there can be a lot of money riding on that position.

Many retail investors have jumped aboard the currency trading boat thanks to it being opened up to the general public thanks to the internet.

According to statistics provided by brokers, a large majority of trader never succeed in forex trading, often losing all of their capital with the lucky ones among them breaking even. Only around the top 5% are able to work the system for consistent and ongoing profits.

This goes to show that making money on the forex market is no easy task. Successful traders have to instill an attitude that enables them to objectively look at the situation of that trading day. If a trader gets cocky and believes he has figured out the market, then that is usually the beginning of the end of his career.

The forex market is an ever-changing, highly volatile and unpredictable environment. You are unable to enter and exit the forex market at the same time. The only way to add any kind of predictability is by utilizing the services of a forex trading robot.

This automated software will give you a fighting chance of forseeing the market's movement over a certain time period. With the feedback from this software, a trader is able to open a position on a currency pair with the robot taking over the monitoring of and if need be the closing of the position.

Not using a stop loss is a cardinal sin in trading and must always be implemented to minimize potential losses. Having this automation in place allows the trader the freedom to leave his computer and do other activities with his time.

Automated trading software will certainly be to your benefit, but be sure to review various ones before purchasing. If you find several that meet your requirements and your budget permits, then get all of them.

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Dollar Slips Versus Yen On Economic Jitters

Thursday, August 27, 2009

CURRENCIES: Dollar Slips Versus Yen On Economic Jitters

By William L. Watts

The U.S. dollar lost ground versus the Japanese yen on Thursday as investors continued to scale back holdings of assets perceived as carrying relatively high risk.

A warning by Chinese officials indicating they would attempt to curb capital spending demand triggered some safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen starting in Asian trading hours.

U.S. equities found a floor as data showed the U.S. economy was not weaker than previously reported in the second quarter, while jobless claims continued to decline.

The U.S. dollar traded at 93.87 Japanese yen, down from 94.22 yen in New York late Wednesday.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell to 78.590 from 78.660 late Wednesday.

The euro also advanced against the greenback, rising to $1.4251, from $1.4241 Wednesday.

The dollar pared some losses after the Labor Department said initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 10,000 to 570,000 in the latest week. While some economists had anticipated a bigger drop, it's still much better than the rate of claims months ago.

"While the reading on initial claims was more than expected, the general idea that the labor market is improving should remain unchanged even if there has been some 'stalling' of the improvement," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak.

A separate report said the economy shrunk 1% in the second quarter, unchanged from what the government previously estimated while economists expected the decline to be worse.

Strategists at KBC Bank in Brussels noted the euro/U.S. dollar currency pair has been locked in a narrow trading range since early June. With the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve both likely to maintain easy monetary policy conditions for some time to come, interest-rate expectations -- often a key driver of currency market moves -- are unlikely to play a major role any time soon, they argued.

That would tend to put the emphasis on risk appetite, with the euro likely to rise as equities gain ground and investors shun safe-haven assets such as the dollar and yen.

But the stock market's recent gains have seen the link between the euro/U.S. dollar pair and global stocks weaken compared to the spring, leaving a "neutral and indecisive" trading picture.

Meanwhile, the British pound lost ground, despite a further rise in U.K. house prices in August. Mortgage lender Nationwide said the average price rose 1.6% from July, marking a further improvement in the hard-hit property sector.

The pound (CUR_GBPUSD) changed hands at $1.6195, down from $1.6230 on Wednesday.

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=CIsrIqgd%2BLmkhB0nEsDfWg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 27, 2009 09:35 ET (13:35 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 26th 2009

Hey everyone. Today’s video is a busy one to say the least, I conduct analysis and build trade plans for 4 currency pairs. Cable, Pound Yen, Pound Swiss and Euro USD. You going to need to bring your “A” game today as it’s a support and resistance and relative strength buffet. Today the Euro Pound cross is going to be a key proxy for the whole currency market I feel, even as far as the USD is concerned. Good luck and I hope you enjoy the video. David Pegler



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Volatility Analysis: GBP/JPY

Volatility Analysis by Time of Day - GBPJPY
[Click on the graph above for a larger version]

One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the GBP/JPY tend to move?”

The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “U.S. equity market open 9:30am ET.” The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 13:30 GMT, based on GBP/JPY price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 43 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (32 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (42 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the GBP/JPY has recently seen a significant surge in volatility during the 15 minutes after the U.S. equity market open at 13:30 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 15 minutes.

This graph does not in any way predict the direction that the GBP/JPY moves at given time. It only shows how big the 15-minute candles have tended to be at different times in the day.

Curt Wehrley
FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst




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U.S. stocks, struggling

U.S. stocks open mixed, after the strong fall in initial jobless claims and a revision of GDP that matches earlier estimates. Struggling to turn positive, DJIA is 6 points down while S&P is negative 2,5 points. Stocks uncertainty is clearly reflected in majors, that, except for Japanese yen that quickly regain strength, remain trapped in small ranges.

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GBP/USD - Head and Shoulders Neckline Break

Price action on GBP/USD has broken down below the neckline of a rough head & shoulders pattern. This occurs after price previously broke down below a key uptrend support line extending from the March low. The right shoulder of the current head & shoulders pattern reached up to just above the 1.6600 level before dropping below the 1.6265 horizontal neckline just yesterday. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Thursday’s (8/27/2009) Chart of the Day.

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The World's Largest Economy Contracts Less than Expected in the Second Quarter!

The U.S. economy continued to contract during the second quarter of this year for a fourth consecutive quarter, however the pace of contract eased drastically from that of the first quarter, as conditions started to improve and several sectors around the economy started to show signs of stabilization.

The U.S. Commerce Department released the Gross Domestic Product Preliminary estimate for the second quarter of this year, GDP contracted by 1.0% inline with the prior contraction of 1.0% reported in the Advanced estimate and better than median estimates of a 1.5% contraction, while the GDP Price index was flat in the second quarter marking a downward revision from the prior estimate of 0.2% and below median estimates.

Moreover, personal consumption declined in the second quarter by 1.0% better than the prior and expected estimates of -1.2% and -1.3% respectively, while Core PCE, the Feds’ favorite indicator for inflation rose in the second quarter by 2.0% inline with the prior and expected estimates.

The economy contracted by 3.9% on a yearly basis, as personal consumption shed 0.69% from GDP, while gross private domestic investments shed 3.20% from GDP, meanwhile the housing sector continued to cut from growth after shedding 0.66% from GDP, inventories shed 1.39% from growth, while net exports contributed with 1.60% to GDP, and governmental consumption added 1.27% to GDP.

The U.S. economy is still on the receiving end of this crisis, however signs of improvement continue to show over the outlook, which suggests that the economy will be able to return back to growth over the course of the third and fourth quarters of this year, however economic growth should remain subdued over the upcoming period, as conditions are still rather challenging.

Rising unemployment, tightened credit conditions, and diminishing households’ wealth continue to weigh down on economic growth in the world’s largest economy, and accordingly the economy is still expected to continue its weakness, as the recovery process just started and it will take some time before the economy returns back to its long term growth potentials.

The U.S. economy will continue recovering, however the recovery will be rather slow and gradual, as economic activity though improving recently yet it needs time, especially as unemployment is still elevated, unemployment is now standing at 9.4% and will probably continue to rise over the course of this year.

Unemployment continue to weigh down on personal income and accordingly consumer spending, and knowing that consumer spending accounts for nearly 2/3 of economic activity in the United States, we should expect economic activity to remain weak until companies start hiring again.

The U.S. Commerce Department released the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 22nd, jobless claims dropped by 10,000 to 570,000 from the prior revised estimate of 580,000 and worse than median estimates of 565,000, while continuing claims dropped to 6.133 million from the prior revised estimate of 6.252 million.

The labor market is still on the receiving end of the worst recession since WWII, as this is the first time the economy had contracted over four consecutive quarters ever since records began back in 1947, and this alone signals that this recession is not your normal recession but was rather close to a depression and the only thing that prevented that from happening was the extreme and rather ingenious measures adopted by the Federal Reserve Bank, so we should give them and their Chairman Ben S. Bernanke the credit they deserve…



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