Volatility Analysis: GBP/JPY

[Click on the graph above for a larger version]

One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the GBP/JPY tend to move?”

The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “U.S. equity market open 9:30am ET.” The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 13:30 GMT, based on GBP/JPY price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 43 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (32 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (42 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the GBP/JPY has recently seen a significant surge in volatility during the 15 minutes after the U.S. equity market open at 13:30 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 15 minutes.

This graph does not in any way predict the direction that the GBP/JPY moves at given time. It only shows how big the 15-minute candles have tended to be at different times in the day.

Curt Wehrley
FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

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