FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook September 1st 2009

Hi everyone, happy to be back after the London holiday. For this outlook video I analyze the Euro Pound extensively not necessarily to trade it but to use this pair as a strong proxy for Pound related relative strength. Nothing particularly complicated, simply using Euro Pound technical’s to trade Cable. Good luck and I hope you enjoy the video. David Pegler

Labels:

FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - August 28, 2009

Today the EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF 2hr macd divergence we have seen for over a week finally was followed up by some lower highs on the EUR/GBP and higher lows on GBP/CHF. Hinting Strongly at minimum of a 21 ema pullback on these long term charts was about to occur. This meant essentially we had technical reasoning to go Long British Pound Sterling against all comers all night long at any support possible until either resistance was hit, or failure in the form of 1-2-3 pattern’s etc. There were high quality long entries on GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, and short on EUR/GBP well into the pre-London session. These parts all offered again high quality pullbacks as the London market opened around 8am London time. In this video I focus on just one of these pairings, the GBP/JPY. I show in detail the divergence we spoke of that led us to believe Sterling strength all night would be the theme, along with complete details on how we put together a ‘Reload’ of the GBP/JPY long off a double bottom 61/8% Fibonacci and other overlapping support. I also discuss how we planned our profit takes, and determine where this trade might go. Excellent night overall, nice GBP basket trades that really cleaned up tonight, could not ask for a better way to end the week.

FXBootcamp London Currency Coach-
Christian Stephens

Labels:

FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 28th 2009

Hey Everyone. Tough London trading prevails however we are trading in the context of some longer term direction especially on the Pound related pairs. In this presentation I draw up a conservative trade plan for Pound Yen and Cable. Lots of Fibonacci work today as well as longer term chart use for an intraday bias. Good luck and have a safe weekend. David Pegler

Labels:

FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - August 28, 2009

Today the EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF 2hr macd divergence we have seen for over a week finally was followed up by some lower highs on the EUR/GBP and higher lows on GBP/CHF. Hinting Strongly at minimum of a 21 ema pullback on these long term charts was about to occur. This meant essentially we had technical reasoning to go Long British Pound Sterling against all comers all night long at any support possible until either resistance was hit, or failure in the form of 1-2-3 pattern’s etc. There were high quality long entries on GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, and short on EUR/GBP well into the pre-London session. These parts all offered again high quality pullbacks as the London market opened around 8am London time. In this video I focus on just one of these pairings, the GBP/JPY. I show in detail the divergence we spoke of that led us to believe Sterling strength all night would be the theme, along with complete details on how we put together a ‘Reload’ of the GBP/JPY long off a double bottom 61/8% Fibonacci and other overlapping support. I also discuss how we planned our profit takes, and determine where this trade might go. Excellent night overall, nice GBP basket trades that really cleaned up tonight, could not ask for a better way to end the week.

FXBootcamp London Currency Coach-
Christian Stephens

Labels:

FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 26th 2009

Hey everyone. Today’s video is a busy one to say the least, I conduct analysis and build trade plans for 4 currency pairs. Cable, Pound Yen, Pound Swiss and Euro USD. You going to need to bring your “A” game today as it’s a support and resistance and relative strength buffet. Today the Euro Pound cross is going to be a key proxy for the whole currency market I feel, even as far as the USD is concerned. Good luck and I hope you enjoy the video. David Pegler

Labels:

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.28.2009

bob-slade-forex-trading-3-150x200Good Morning:

The Greenback picked up overnight as US stock futures dropped after a report that China will be looking to curb overcapacity in industry, including steel and cement.
The Euro gained in early trading after the German IFO survey was higher than expected, but not strong enough to keep the Euro in positive territory.

Asian equity markets were higher-European markets are lower after some disappointing corporate profits.

Oil:$71.89 Gold:$948.50

Todays data:
Durable Goods: exp:3.0% prior: -2.5%
New Home Sales: exp: 390k prior: 384K

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Labels:

Forex Gold Special

Now I,m telling to you about Forex Gold Information

The market action this week provided a great demonstration of why I mentioned in my last post that options on gold futures contracts were my favorite way to play the ongoing bull market in gold. As gold continues a profit-taking pullback prior to advancing to all-time highs, my margined gold futures contracts and FOREX gold and silver positions were all stopped out, preserving some of my profits, but also meaning that if the market had turned on a dime and shot back the other way, I would have missed out on some of the move up while I was still trying to decide where and when to get back into the market. Because the vast majority of my positions in silver and gold are in options on December 2008 futures contracts, those positions are temporarily down in value, but still in play to benefit from the inevitable turnaround.

This example shows in a nutshell why options are a great choice for investing in commodities that you are sure will move either much higher or much lower in the future, but can't be sure exactly when the big move or moves will occur. As discussed in previous posts, since you pay for an option in full up front, your loss is limited to your initial investment if it expires worthless, and that can only happen if you fail to roll it over prior to its expiration date. On the other hand, since futures contracts and FOREX positions are heavily margined, investors have to close them out quickly when the market starts moving against their positions, as happened to my margined positions this week. Futures and FOREX traders who do not do so quickly become former traders. So why does anyone trade margined positions then? Why doesn't everyone just trade options? The answer is that since you pay the full value of the option at the time you establish a position, you can't control as large of a total position size as you could in the futures, since you only have to make a small "deposit" when you establish a position in a futures contract, as discussed in more detail in previous posts. Like everywhere else in the market, taking greater risk creates the possibility of greater returns.
Options on stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) were discussed in detail in my November 8, 2007 post. The main difference between options on stocks and options on futures is that a futures option gives you the right to buy or sell one futures contract at a set price at a set future date, instead of 100 shares of an underlying stock. Other than that difference, the underlying concept is basically the same. A speculator looking for the maximum leverage would purchase a futures contract on a given commodity, and would consequently assume the risk of greater losses than his or her initial investment if their margined position moved against them far enough before they closed it out. A speculator looking for high leverage, but also looking to avoid margin calls, would instead purchase options on a futures contract.
Let's look specifically at some examples for each method. As of this writing, with gold trading at $787 per troy ounce, a speculator with $10,000 could choose to control two full size 100 troy ounce gold futures contracts (leaving a $1,900 cash cushion), or 10 e-mini 33.2 troy ounce gold futures contracts (leaving a $2,300 cash cushion). The speculator could also choose to buy two call options that would give him or her the right to purchase two full size 100 troy ounce gold futures contracts at a price of $800 per troy ounce on November 20, 2008 (leaving a $180 cash balance). If the price of gold moved from $787 to $887 per troy ounce sometime in that period and the speculator decided to take profits at that point, the respective profits would be $20,000 for the two full size contract choice, $33,200 for the 10 e-mini contract choice, and $12,700 for the two call options.
The $12,700 profit on the call options represents a gain of just under 160%, but was achieved without having to worry about margin calls or getting stopped out of the position at a loss. True to the concept of greater risk taking opening up the possibility of greater gains, the margined futures contract positions were up 247% and 431%, respectively, but if at any time following the opening of the position the price of gold had gone down by just $4 to $783, the futures contract holders would have received margin calls asking them to deposit more money, at which point most futures traders would have closed out their positions. There is also the ongoing mental stress associated with holding heavily margined positions to consider.
Options on futures should only be considered by a speculator who has a very firm view of the future direction of a particular commodities market, as options can expire worthless if they are not rolled over. So the obvious question at this point in time is whether or not gold is certain to move significantly higher in the next few years. Since nothing is certain in this world except for death and taxes, a better question is what it would take for gold NOT to move significantly higher. The only scenario that derails the ongoing gold bull market is one in which: (1) the Fed embarks on an aggresive campaign to raise interest rates to protect the dollar, thereby throwing millions more homeowners out on the street than are headed out on the street already; and (2) the politicians in Washington embark on an aggressive campaign to cut federal spending on defense, Social Security, Medicare, etc. enough to generate huge annual budget surpluses for at least the next generation. Each speculator or investor will have to make up their own mind as to whether or not they see the above scenario coming to fruition anytime soon.

Labels:

Forex transactions

Forex transactions are carried out by Forex brokerage companies, also known as major banks dealers. Forex market is worldwide and your European colleagues may make a transaction with Japanese traders when it's time for you to sleep in the North America. There are 3 shifts for the major institutions to work in due to 24-hours a day activity of the Forex market. It's possible to ask for overnight execution for take-profit and stop-loss orders of the client.
Prices in the Forex market fluctuate without any dramatic changes unlike stock market where considerable gaps are likely to be seen. There isn't any problems entering and exit the market due to its daily turnover of about $1.2 trillion. Forex market can not ever be forced to stop. The transactions were carried out even in 2001, on September, 11th.

Labels:

Forex Foresee

The Market Oracle, an online financial publication, has done even better, preparing a one-year forecast for all of the major currencies along with a detailed analysis of the major factors driving each currency in the month of February. The Dollar and Yen are projected to be the strongest performers in this time frame, benefiting from a trend towards risk aversion. It should be noted that this prediction is consistent with news reported by the Forex Blog earlier this week. On the other hand, currencies that have been propped up by the Yen carry trade, namely those of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa, will face selling pressure. The British Pound is projected to underperform slightly, due to an easing of British monetary policy, which will narrow the interest rate advantage claimed over the US.
Finally, the Euro is something of a wildcard. On the one hand, the EU economy is stagnating, and the ECB has hinted that rate cuts are a possibility. On the other hand, the Euro theoretically stands to inherit a significant amount of risk-averse capital, especially from foreign investors looking for a stable alternative to the Dollar. Accordingly, the Market Oracle forecasts a short-term decline in the value of the Euro but a long-term appreciation.

Labels:

WHAT FOREX IS NOT

Forex is not a quick rich scheme.
Forex is not easy even though my blog says so.
Forex is not a place for newbie
Forex is not something you can learn overnight
If you needed the money, dont put it in Forex. Seriously. Go somewhere else.
Forex is a journey, enjoy it.
There is no such thing as holy grail coz there is no perfection in this world. If perfection exist in this world it would be boring. No more room for improvement.
Forex is not rocket science. There is no right or wrong. There is only probability.

Labels:

FOREX AM: US Banks To Receive $250 Billion Investment, FX Carry Returns

In a long awaited decision, the US government will infuse cash into the nation’s nine largest financial institutions in attempts to finally break deadlocked credit markets and boost liquidity. The announcement comes a day after European officials pledged the same, allowing for some appreciation in the Euro and British pound over the course of the session. Incidentally, it is also in line with the advice of other industry notables that previously proposed the strategic solution, one that Warren Buffett has implemented himself in recent months. Details of the plan are scheduled to be released when US Treasury Secretary holds a press conference this morning. In general, however, it seems that $125 billion is earmarked for nine of the industry’s largest shops with $250 billion set aside for firms to be decided on by US Treasury official Neel Kashkari, who now oversees the rescue panel. The infusion will also allow the US government to own stakes in the aforementioned institutions, through instruments that will be designed not to dilute current stock holdings. This will allow equity holders in expecting no real damage to currently estimated earnings. Ultimately, the plan should break the recent string of bearishness in the market, creating a bit of confidence in the economy and shift the dynamics of currency pairs back to previous beliefs.

The news has already boosted markets as Asian equity indexes have jumped enormously on the headlines. Most notably has been the Nikkei 225 Index in Japan. The benchmark has recovered by 14 percent in the overnight, helping to foster further gains through Europe. US blue chips are expected to continue yesterday’s run of 11 percent, as futures are pricing in another positive gain for the session. Additionally, traders are seeing a jump in carry trade interest as the Japanese yen continues to slide since making the break of 99.00 last week against the dollar. Recovering to just below the 103.00 psychological figure, USDJPY strength has helped to support gains in the pound sterling against the yen as well, trading above the 181.00 figure. Given current market standing, further strength in risk appetite can be expected as major spreads have narrowed and 3-month Libor has contracted to 4.64 percent.

Labels:

Forex European Preview 06.05.2009

Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index is expected to show prices shrank at an annual pace of -0.9% in May, the third consecutive month that CPI has printed in negative territory. A survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg expects deflation will persist for the remainder of 2009 as economic growth remains subdued. Switzerland was confirmed to be in recession after GDP shrank in the six months ending in March and positive growth is not expected to return at least until the second quarter of next year. The downturn could be prolonged for substantially longer if expectations of lower prices become entrenched, encouraging consumers and businesses to wait for the best possible bargain and perpetually hold off on spending and investment.

Turning to the UK, May’s Producer Price Index report is expected to reveal that the annual pace of wholesale inflation shrank -0.4%, the first time in nearly seven years. The reading implies downward pressure on consumer prices (the headline inflation gauge) in the months ahead as lower production costs are passed on via cheaper finished products. Although inflation now stands at 2.3%, a reading comfortably close to the Bank of England’s 2% target level, economists expect price growth to slip below 1% through the second half of this year. Median estimates from the bank now suggest economic growth will average 0.02% over 2010, an assumption that yields forecasts of a return to inflation above 1% in the first quarter of next year.

On balance, forex traders are likely to look past the European data docket, with price action waiting for the release of the US Non Farm Payrolls report late into the session to guide directional momentum. Expectations call for payrolls to drop 520k in May as the unemployment rate surges to a 26-year high at 2.6%. Markets have viewed the health of the US economy as a proxy for that of the world at large, expecting a rebound in the largest consumer market to offer positive spillover elsewhere.

Labels: